War With Iran: the October Surprise?

Greenwald thinks so.

However, I think he stretches it (just a bit) by stating that Israelis are joining the American neoconservatives, at ratcheting up the pre-war rhetoric. The Jerusalem Post reported Thursday that Iran would "master centrifuge technology and begin enriching uranium on a military scale this year."

The Israeli ambassador to the U.S. was also on Fox News this morning making the same predictions:



Using the word "holocaust" to describe Iran's intents sends a clear message to Iran that Israel and the US will view their efforts in the harshest possible way, and that they risk much in pressing forward with enrichment of uranium. Last summer, the Israelis likely bombed a Syrian military target which most believe was a nuclear cache from North Korea. Both Israel and Syria kept quiet about it. Syria did the right thing; they understand the consequences of publicly flexing nuclear muscle in the Middle East.

And if it's true, isn't Israel right to warn about it? Does anyone believe that a nuclear Iran wouldn't try to pass weaponry to Hezbollah in Lebanon to use against Israel?

Finally, I'm not so sure that Israel feels any big love for George Bush. After all, the guy abandoned the Middle East peace process and put them in greater danger by invading Iraq and creating a bigger mess than there already was. They love all American presidents who make public pronouncements of America's unbreakable bond with them. And now that Barack Obama has put his loyalty on the record, he can join all the others.

What Firecrackers Can Do

It has been said that the atomic bombs dropped over Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945 -- with the respective force of 15 and 20 kilotons of TNT -- were firecrackers compared to the nuclear weapons of today, which are measured in megatons.

The Hiroshima bomb, called Little Boy by the US when it was dropped by the Enola Gay on August 6, 1945, caused immediate deaths somewhere between 70,000 and 130,000. The death toll in the five years following the explosion number in the 200,000 range.

An unknown photographer snapped photographs of the devastation to both buildings and people. A U.S. serviceman, Robert L. Capp, found rolls of undeveloped film in a cave outside the city. He donated the photographs to the Hoover Institution Archives in 1998 with the provision that they not be reproduced until this year. The entire set of 10 photographs can be found here. It is a devastating accounting of the horrors of war. Just in case anyone wonders whether a nuclear war can be won, these photographs graphically illustrate how utterly absurd an idea that is.

Now, Some of our more insane citizens want to consider this nuclear option against Iran or North Korea. Just so we're clear: a 15 megaton blast is 1,000 times more powerful than a 15 kiloton blast.

When my sons are old enough, they will see these photographs. My hope is that their images become as seared into their brains as they now are into my own, and that they become strong voices for the elimination of these weapons.

Biden holds forth on McCain, the election, and National Security

A Biden adviser released an excerpt from a speech he's giving today at Georgetown University. He says, "When people say, 'This is the most important election in my lifetime,' they're right."

"When it comes to Iraq, there is no daylight between John McCain and George W. Bush. They are joined at the hip. When it comes to Iraq, there will be no change with a McCain administration… and so there is a real and profound choice for Americans in November.
"Fifteen months into the surge that President Bush ordered and Senator McCain embraced, we’ve gone from drowning to treading water. We are no closer to the President’s stated goal of an Iraq that can defend itself, govern itself and sustain itself in peace. And we’re still spending $3 billion every week and losing 30 to 40 American lives every month.
"We can’t keep treading water without exhausting ourselves. That’s what both the President and Senator McCain are asking us to do. They can’t tell us when, or even if, Iraqis will come together politically, which was the purpose of the surge in the first place. They can’t tell us when, or
even if, we will draw down below pre-surge levels. They can’t tell us when, or even if, Iraq will be able to stand on its own two feet. They can’t tell us when, or even if, this war will end.
"Most Americans want this war to end. They want us to come together around a plan to leave Iraq without leaving chaos behind.
"They’re not defeatists. They’re patriots who understand the national interest – and the great things Americans can achieve if we responsibly end a war that we should not have started.
"I believe it is fully within our power to do that. Then, with our credibility restored, our alliances repaired and our freedom to act renewed, we will once again lead the world. We will once
again address the hopes, not play to the fears, of our fellow Americans. That is my hope for next November."

Much as I like Joe Biden as a venerated elder in the Senate, I just can't get 100% behind what is excerpted here. Neither Obama nor Clinton would get us completely out of Iraq, and McCain will actually make things worse. We need to face the reality that our presence in Iraq is now required to prevent further damage to the region. I think the war is wrong, our reasons for starting it were wrong, and Bush needs to be prosecuted for his failure to defend our Constitution (from himself!).

However, if we leave before the Iraqis can defend themselves without our support, we will create a power vacuum. Maliki is worthless and Sadr too powerful. Also the Shiite majority are too allied with Iran. Iran wants to go nuclear and dominate the region, and getting deep into Iraq will give them way too much real estate. In fact, last week it announced an expansion of its uranium enrichment program, prompting concerns in both Israel and Saudi Arabia. We need to face the reality that Bush's mistake, endorsed by Congress, is now America's mistake. We all need to see it through and leave the region better off for our having been there in the first place. I certainly don't like it, and I don't think anyone does. But I also don't like the idea of just cutting it off and pulling out immediately, because I think that things will get worse over there if we do. I don't think that the enemy will follow us home, but I do think that it will plunge the world economy into chaos over the supply of oil. Much as I hate to admit it, we will still need the black stuff to fuel our engines for years to come.


Ugh... excuse me while I go throw up now.