Run, Joe, Run!

According to TPM, Joe Lieberman is going to run for reelection to the Senate in 2012. Given the fact that he's been campaigning on behalf of Republicans since before he became an independent, and since he's quite unpopular in his home state, I wonder: is he going to run as an independent again, or as a Republican? If he runs as an independent, his standing among independents in that state is fair at best (46%/47% fav/unfav), while it's very favorable among Republicans (78%/17%). Democrats see through his bullshit (18%/73%). Among both men and women, he has higher unfavorables.

If he jumped parties now and became the Republican most of us already assume him to be, he would sacrifice his committee chairmanships and become part of a despised minority party, but he could gamble that Republicans regain enough seats in the Senate to push back the super-majority now owned by the Democrats and campaign to be a leader in the GOP caucus. This could position him to be Senate Minority Leader (or majority leader if he lives long enough to see the Republicans regain control of the chamber).

Then again, seeing how Republicans are getting turned out of major elective offices in the northeast, Lieberman might stay put and continue his "independent" status in name only and continue to caucus with the GOP. His re-election chances, however, would be slim unless he could cobble together enough Republican votes to make up for his deficits among independents and Democrats.

Josh Marshall sees an opportunity, if it were possible, for the Connecticut Democratic Party to raise money for the eventual Democratic challenger. Lieberman would, of course, get a lot of money from the insurance industry (if only because of his filibuster of the Senate's version of health care reform). But what others? AIPAC, for sure. Wall Street? Perhaps, although Obama's stimulus plans have been mostly good for investment banks. Unions? Fuggedaboudit. Christianist groups? Likely no, since Lieberman is liberal on social issues and is going to hell because he's not a Christian. But they might hold their noses and throw their support behind him if it means keeping a progressive out of the seat.

I know it's three years off, but the events of the next 12 months are crucial in seeing how much more trouble this putz is going to be.