Poll Dancing

Karen Tumulty over at Time's blog, Swampland, spotlights a Pew Research Center study that attempts to address the effect that young people, who don't often have land lines but use cell phones only, are having on the poll results (emphasis theirs).

[A] virtually identical pattern is seen across all three surveys: In each case, including cell phone interviews resulted in slightly more support for Obama and slightly less for McCain, a consistent difference of two-to-three points in the margin.

Two to three points? They actually called this "statistically insignificant." Maybe for the polls, with margins of error of two to five percent. In a presidential election, that's a solid win.

Good news: an ABC/Washington Post poll shows Obama with a 9% lead over McCan't. This represents a five-point jump for Obama, and a six-point fall for McCan't, since the Republican National Convention three weeks ago. Add those cell phone geeks into the mix, and Obama's lead could be as much as 12%. Can you say "landslide?"

Other data in the poll: favorable numbers for Palin in the past two weeks among independents has dropped 12% to 48%, while among independent women the fall is dramatically worse -- down 22% to 43% favorable.

Maybe those numbers will jump a bit once (IF?) McCan't allows her to talk to the press. Or, sadly, if Biden eats his other shoe.