Tuesday, May 20, 2008

Hillary's Fuzzy Math

While Obama only needs 15 more pledged delegates after today's votes in Kentucky and Oregon to capture a majority in that arena, Clinton still claims that she's the better candidate because the states she has won put her on a better playing field against McCain:
The states I've won total 300 electoral votes. If we had the same rules as the Republicans, I would be nominee right now. We have different rules, so what we've got to figure out is who can win 270 electoral votes. My opponent has won states totaling 217 electoral votes.

First, the states that she has won as a Democratic candidate don't necessarily mean they'll go to her as the Democratic nominee. Arkansas would probably go for McCain, as would Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, Oklahoma, West Virginia, New Mexico, Nevada and Arizona. These states account for 68 electoral votes, so now she's down to 232.

Second, if Obama is the nominee, he'll take California and New York, which alone would give him an additional 86 electoral votes. I also think Texas could be his, as would New Jersey, which would mean another 49 electoral votes. Play out this scenario and now Obama has 352 electoral votes out of a possible 538.

Now, of course he'll probably lose in some of the states where he's won, such as the South, plus Utah and the Plains States, so at the end of the day he's in a tight race against McCain (God help us all). But all polls so far put him ahead of McCain nationally, so he's still the better candidate.

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