Scary Statistic

From Nicholas Kristof at the NY Times. Seems that in nine of the last 10 presidential elections, the candidate who was nominated first won the general election. In 1980, Ted Kennedy held on until August, believing he had a real shot against Jimmy Carter when his chances had long since faded. As Kristof notes, Carter would probably have lost to Reagan anyway given his very strong negatives and the ongoing Iran hostage crisis, but Kennedy's hanging on did do some lasting damage to the party.

Hillary needs to bow out, and very soon (as in the next two weeks). Someone on NPR mentioned yesterday that having her exit, only to have her win a primary or two after her departure, would be devastating to Obama. McCain served Bush some serious embarrassment in 2000 after he quit and then won a primary. She should perhaps hang on long enough to take West Virginia and Kentucky -- two states where the outcome won't matter a hill o'beans in the end -- and then emphatically throw her support behind Obama.

The Dems have a huge obstacle to overcome. They must reconcile with white voters who would rather vote for McCain -- or not at all -- if Obama is the nominee. Some serious education must be provided for these uneducated voters who think that a vote for McSame is better for America than a vote for Obama. If they can't be swayed, then I fear that only confirms what I and many others have been saying all along: Americans really are that stupid.