Friday, June 6, 2008

Crunching the Obama voter numbers

From Dr. D. Titus Levi:

Too bad Mr. Andersen's math skills suck:
But do the math, and this default piece of common sense doesn't look so convincing. College- educated people are more than a quarter of the population (and an even higher fraction of those who vote), people under 30 are 15%, and African-Americans are 11.5%. In other words, those three groups combined make up half the electorate.
Yo, Kurt, you're double-counting! For instance, some African-Americans are under 30, and -- gasp! -- have college degrees too!


Given that the median age in the US is about 33 or 34, you gotta figure that the under-30 set makes up way less than half of the electorate. Plenty of college-educated folks will vote for McCain. The Black Folk I'm not too worried about so that 10% or 11% is like MITB (Money In the Bank, for you neophytes). But still, making it first-past-the-post will be no mean feat.

From what I've been reading, the country remains deadlocked around 45%-48% on either side, with 4%-10% of voters "in play." So the competition is for this slice. The swing voters. AKA, the wishy-washy, the uninformed, the confused. This stuff keeps me on tenterhooks.

There's one other factor that could make a big difference that doesn't figure into Mr. Andersen's calculus: women, especially young women. If enough of them register, and if enough of those who register turn out and vote, then McCain will be overwhelmed. The problem is motivation and organization (Where you at, Dr. Dean?).

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