How to Deal With the Arabs, Post-Bush

Yglesias calls our attention to the idea posited by writer Shadi Hamid, who is director of research at The Project on Middle East Democracy, and a contributor to the National Security Network's foreign affairs blog, Democracy Arsenal.

Hamid believes that there is nothing in U.S. history that suggests a President Obama (or McCain) will be any better than Bush at engaging with our Arab oil suppliers, many of them despots and dictators. Hamid suggests that we promote the development of democracies in the region by conditioning foreign aid, but Yglesias thinks this would not work. Matt believes that it would be more effective simply to distance ourselves from these "autocratic regimes." Money quote:

The next president should decline to invite Saudi princes to his vacation house. Instead of selling these regimes advanced weaponry and then offsetting that with special extra goodies for Israel, we could just not sell the advanced weaponry and eschew the extra goodies for Israel. And the president can say that while he won’t dictate internal policy to Arab governments, America’s view is that democracy is good, and we would be happy to deal with democratically elected governments no matter who won which elections.

I'm not sure I agree with either Hamid or Yglesias. It's true that our motives are probably viewed suspiciously by the Arab world -- and well they should, since in their view our foray into Iraq was more about controlling the supply (and price) of oil than anything else. But distancing ourselves from both sides until democracy takes root could be viewed as weak leadership, or a holier-than-thou tough love approach that would more than likely create resentment in both Israel and Arab countries. Further, I think that 10 years ago this may have been the way to go, before the sleeping giants of China and India fully woke up. Today, the U.S. is about as close to a borrower of IMF money as she's ever been, and we just don't have the clout.

I think Obama already has the right solution in focusing on a green energy economy. The major oil companies like Chevron and BP are already heavily invested in alternative energy production. Entrepreneurial types like Boone Pickens want to tap into natural gas for our cars and expand the use of wind energy for home energy. We've already reduced our driving and gas consumption so much that even the big SUVs are going hybrid (e.g., Cadillac's Escalade).

Stay on that path, and the resulting hit to their wallets will hit them hard. At the same time, engage India and China to start doing the same with regard to consumption, and pretty soon the emirs, sheiks, and dictators will soon see how beloved they are.