An Omen

McCan't pulled his team out of Michigan Thursday, basically ceding the state and its 17 electoral votes to Obama, who had a 10 point lead in that state. McCan't's assets have been redirected to other battleground states, like Wisconsin, Ohio, and Florida.

But a 10-point lead is the tipping point for McCan't to leave, eh? Let's take a look, shall we?

PA (won by Kerry 51%-49% in '04; 21 electoral votes)

• Quinnipiac - 10/1 - Obama 54%, McCain 39%
• Franklin-Marshall - 9/28 - Obama, 45%, McCain 38%

NH (McCain won in '00 and '08 and Obama came in 2nd; 4 electoral votes)

• Rassmussen - 10/3 - Obama 53%, McCain 43%
• Anselm - 10/2 - Obama 49%, McCain 37%

Looks like PA and NH will be next.

NC (Traditional Republican state; 15 electoral votes)

• Rassmussen - 10/3 - Obama 50%, McCain 47%

They now have this state as a toss-up.

OH ("won" by Bush in '00 and '04; 20 electoral votes)

• Quinnipiac - 10/1 - Obama 50%, McCain 42%
• Rassmussen - 9/28 - McCain 48%, Obama 47%

RR now has this state as a toss-up as well.

WI (Kerry won 50-49% in '04; 10 electoral votes)

• Quinnipiac - 9/24 - Obama 49%, McCain 42%
• Strategic Vision - 9/28 - Obama 49%, McCain 40%

I see this as a loser for McCan't as well.

FL (stolen by Bush in 'oo; won 52-47% in '04; 27 electoral votes)

• Quinnipiac - 10/1 - Obama 51%, McCain 43%

Predict FL for Obama come next week.

Given the non-issue of Palin after last night's debate, McCan't has absolutely nothing going for him in these last 32 days. A successful outcome in the House over the bailout (voting underway) will factor minimally, since McCan't unsuspended his campaign to attend last week's debate. As Obama and Biden both pointed out, McCan't was wrong on Iraq from the start, and the surge has not achieved its strategic objectives. Further, as I watched the debate on CNN last night, the squiggly-line meter at the bottom gauged the reaction of undecided Ohio voters equipped with a little device that measured their level of satisfaction with a candidate's answers. Every time Biden talked about ending the war, the lines shot up. Every time Palin tried to ride Petraeus's coattails (since she had nothing else), the lines stayed flat or dropped.

As many commentators have observed in the past couple of days since the first debate, the only way for McCan't to gain any ground is to go really negative with advertising. Watch for it, and don't panic. Patience and steel.