Debate #1 Reaction

You can travel all over the net to find what all the bloggers have to say about what the pundits say, and all the poll data is right there too. Here's my take, as a non-pundit, neo-blogger:

McCan't blew it.

A little sports analogy here: in this first debate, coming on the heels of his major melodramatic meltdown over the financial crisis, where he claimed to have "suspended" his campaign but still had ads running in key states, McCan't needed to hit a home run over the center field fence. At best he had a strong double down the right field line. At worst, he had a sliding double, and had his spikes up in Obama's face. After such a disastrous week, however, it might have been enough for him to appear calm and collected, but he largely failed there.

On the economic crisis, McCan't was disconnected from reality. He spoke mostly about government spending (granted, Lehrer's questioning sort of led him there) and no time talking about how he would create a better environment to protect ordinary Americans from the abuses of Wall Street and large corporations. I read one blogger say that, according to the transcript, McCan't never uttered the words "middle class," while Obama, looking into the camera to connect with the voters, said it three times. One good point for McCan't was his acknowledgment that Republicans had entered the last presidential term determined to change government, but that government had changed them instead. He at least admitted to presiding over the largest expansion of government spending in history.

On foreign policy, again McCan't was disconnected. He had nothing concrete to offer to voters who are tired of the Iraq War and want to see the troops withdrawn. All he could talk about was "winning" and how we are "winning." Obama landed a crushing blow -- his best of the night -- when he said directly to McCan't, "You think the war started in 2007 -- the war started in 2003." McCan't is running away from his record on voting to authorize the war, and his prediction that it would be over quickly and easily, on WMDs, and on how we would be greeted as liberators upon entering Baghdad. Major score for Obama by repeating "You were wrong" three times. I was annoyed by McCan't repeating the idea that Obama "did not understand" or was "naive" or "dangerous," when clearly Obama had a more coherent, focused, and long-term approach to foreign policy than he did. McCan't's eagerness to resolve conflicts militarily was front and center, and I think that is a big reason why Obama had such big gains in the follow up polls last night.

On style, I'd have to call it a draw. Obama was his customary cool-headed self, but in this debate I thought he could have done a better job hitting McCan't on how connected he is to Bush and how disconnected he is from voters and their needs. He was engaged, personable, and seemed way more at ease with himself, smiling frequently. In particular, I thought he made huge gains when he chuckled upon hearing himself compared to Bush on "stubborness." McCan't looked completely uncomfortable, his eyes darting all over the place, scowling, squinting, blinking, and never once in 90 minutes looking at Obama. No objective person could look at that and interpret that either disdain or fear, neither of which was a positive for McCan't. In fact, I was hoping that Obama would have addressed this thoroughly childish behavior at the end of the debate. Something like, "You know, John -- in nearly 90 minutes we've been debating and you haven't looked at me once in the eye. I think that pretending that I'm not here is about as effective as pretending that you're, say, different from George Bush." McCan't's voice appeared pinched, and his smiling and excessive blinking whenever he was attacked looked to me like he was struggling to mask his temper, which is of course legendary among those who know (particularly his own wife). However, when he would bring up a touching anecdote about a veteran's family, or Reagan, his face would soften, his eyes widen, and his voice patterns even out. He had more of those moments to connect than Obama, which is the primary reason for the draw in my view.

Obama, for his part, didn't need a home run. He's already got a comfortable lead in most of the national polls, and some of those are outside the margin of error, which to me gives him a clear lead. He needed to make contact with the ball and hit it where McCan't couldn't easily field it, and he did that enough times to increase his lead or at worst hold on to the lead he had. No major poll puts him at a disadvantage yet. He did the right thing the day before the debate to lower expectations about his performance. He had solid ideas, made forceful arguments, took the debate right to McCan't (one awkward moment was when he let Lehrer lead him to address his comments to McCan't; it made him look weak to me), and was otherwise in command. McCan't has an advantage with his depth of experience and knowledge of foreign policy, but he was rooted in what Obama called "20th century thinking" for a 21st century world. I really liked Obama's comment about McCan't's out-of-touch stance with Pakistan: "Well, [Musharraf] is a dictator, but he's our dictator." That's exactly the kind of old-school politics that currently has us seen by the world as unreliable, dangerous, and belligerent.

Next week is the VP debate. Totally absent from the room last night was Sarah Palin, who was sequestered at a "rib-fest" and debate-watching party in Pennsylvania. Biden, for his part, was in the spin room and on every channel after the debate, offering his take and his support for Obama. This morning on MSNBC's "Morning Joe," Pat Buchanan made a good point that, had Palin been there, Biden would have been the loneliest person in the spin room, as reporters have been dying to get at Palin for weeks. I'm not sure what the debate format will be next week, but if it approximates the format for last night, I'm genuinely frightened for Palin. I will have sit there with a towel to chew on as I try to endure her talking point salads on every topic thrown at her. An interesting comment by Joe Scarborough this morning -- that it wasn't Palin's fault that she is so unprepared, it's McCan't's fault for picking her too soon.

As Peter Gabriel sang in "San Jacinto": We will walk on the land/We will breathe of the air/We will drink from the stream/We will live -- hold the line/Hold the line.

Hold the line.